IT Headcount Expectations for 2025 Hit Lowest Level in Over a Decade

A recent survey has revealed that only 36% of CIOs anticipate IT headcount growth in the coming year, marking the lowest figure since 2011. The shifting economic landscape and ongoing debates surrounding AI’s impact are among the key factors clouding the outlook for IT hiring.

Forecasting is often a matter of timing, yet sentiment tends to evolve more gradually.

This tension is evident in the IT hiring market for 2025. IT recruitment firm Harvey Nash recently highlighted the implications of its latest survey, which showed CIOs adopting a markedly pessimistic stance towards IT hiring prospects for the new year.

The survey indicated that just 36% of CIOs expected IT headcounts to grow in 2025, the most cautious sentiment recorded since 2011.

However, Jason Pyle, Harvey Nash’s President and Managing Director, suggested to CIO.com that this outlook may already have shifted since the survey was conducted, particularly as the US economy has stabilised.

“The economic landscape is evolving. The economy isn’t in a recession, as many enterprise CIOs had feared,” Pyle noted. “Those concerns simply didn’t materialise.”

Despite this, there remains considerable disagreement among industry observers about IT hiring in 2025, reflecting the mixed signals surrounding the state of IT jobs. Generative AI is a prime example of this divergence. While some argue that gen AI efficiencies may curb IT hiring, others predict that growing demand for gen AI expertise will drive IT workforce expansion in the coming year. Even those who foresee a hiring boom acknowledge that gen AI could ultimately reduce IT recruitment in the longer term.

“It will take a significant amount of time before reduced hiring becomes a reality,” said Pyle, an advocate of a gen AI-driven hiring surge in 2025. “Achieving those efficiencies will take time. Over the next few years, we’ll see an increase in hiring.”

Amy Loomis, a research vice president at IDC, adopted a more cautious stance on IT hiring predictions for 2025, pointing to variations across different industries. “I expect IT hiring [in 2025] to remain flat or increase, depending on the sector,” Loomis said, agreeing with Pyle that generative AI will play a pivotal role, alongside the ongoing need to manage and modernise legacy systems.

Both Pyle and Loomis stressed that demand for talent skilled in building bespoke gen AI applications or managing external gen AI algorithms will continue to grow.

“We need to retain individuals who understand large language models (LLMs), are proficient in Python, and can work across various models,” Loomis remarked.

Gina Smith, an IDC research director, added that CIOs will need to balance hiring skilled professionals with upskilling their existing workforce.

“I’m sceptical that most companies will opt to upskill their staff,” Smith said, explaining that IT executives “are often constrained by financial pressures.” She further noted, “The pace of technological advancement is accelerating rapidly. We can’t keep employees up to date because the requirements are constantly evolving.”

A shortage of talent — or more specifically, a shortage of skilled professionals willing to accept the compensation many enterprise CIOs are offering amidst tightening IT budgets — will also play a significant role.

“At the end of the day, it’s all about pay, benefits, and flexibility,” Pyle observed. “If you offer the right package, your chances of attracting talent improve significantly.”

This perhaps underpins the pessimism expressed by surveyed CIOs regarding their 2025 IT headcount expectations. While aware of the pressing need for highly skilled talent, many CIOs remain doubtful about their organisation’s ability to expand headcounts given financial constraints — even as economic conditions have begun to stabilise.

Overall, the survey presents a picture of an IT hiring market that continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.

Caitlin Wehniainen, Director of Business Development at On Cue Hire, emphasised the ongoing evolution of IT recruitment in light of the survey findings.

“After 14 years in IT staffing, I’ve witnessed hiring transform rather than decline. The shift lies in how companies are hiring, not necessarily in the volume of hires,” Wehniainen explained. “Routine maintenance and support tasks are increasingly being outsourced or automated, allowing organisations to prioritise roles that require hybrid skill sets. Today, technical expertise alone isn’t sufficient. Our clients seek professionals who can engage with executives, collaborate with stakeholders, and think strategically, bringing innovative ideas to the table. For example, roles that combine analytics and engineering are becoming more prevalent.”

Source: cio.com